Copper for new energy vehicles

    According to the statistics of the International Copper Association, the average copper consumption per vehicle in 2019 is 12.6kg, an increase of 14.5% compared with 11kg in 2016. The reason for the increase in copper usage is mainly due to the continuous updating of driving technology and the demand for more electronic components and wire groups.

    The copper consumption of new energy vehicles will increase in an all-round way on the basis of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, and a large number of wire groups are required inside the motor. At present, the vast majority of new energy vehicles on the market choose PMSM (permanent magnet synchronous motor). The copper consumption of this type of motor is about 0.1kg per kW, while the power of new energy vehicles sold on the market is generally above 100kW, only the motor uses copper The amount is more than 10kg. In addition, a large amount of copper is required for batteries and charging functions, so the overall copper consumption will increase significantly. According to IDTechEx analysts' calculation, the copper consumption for hybrid vehicles is about 40kg, that for plug-in vehicles is about 60kg, and for pure electric vehicles is 83kg. For large vehicles such as pure electric buses, 224-369kg copper is required.

Average copper consumption of four mainstream motors (unit: kg / kW)

(source: global copper association, IDTechEx)

Motor usage of mainstream brand new energy vehicles

(source: Wikipedia)

    Copper accounts for more than 95% of the automobile midline group. Due to the increase of electronic components and wire groups in the car, the processing size is required to be continuously reduced. Compared with aluminum, copper has better ductility and is easier to be processed in small caliber. At the same time, for the sake of endurance and power, new energy vehicles also prefer copper wire with lower resistance, which makes copper difficult to replace in automobile production.

    Current situation of new energy vehicle market

    In 2019, the global production and sales of automobiles were 91.7868 million and 91.3584 million, down 5.2% and 4.5%. The global sales of new energy vehicles were 2.2 million, an increase of 10%, accounting for only 2.4% of the total sales. Domestic production and sales of vehicles were 25.721 million and 25.769 million, down 7.5% and 8.2%, respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1242000 and 1206000, respectively, down 2.3% and 4.0% year-on-year. Sales of new energy vehicles account for 4.8%. China is the largest production and sales market of new energy vehicles in the world by 2019. (source: International Automobile organization, China Automobile Industry Association)

(source: International Automobile organization)

    China Automobile Industry Association recently released the sales data of new energy vehicles from January to July 2020. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 100000 and 98000, respectively, increasing by 15.6% and 19.3% year-on-year. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles were 496000 and 486000, respectively, down 31.7% and 32.8% year-on-year. It is expected that the sales situation will improve in the second half of the year, with the expected sales volume of 1.1 million vehicles in the whole year. This year, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe have increased rapidly. According to the data released by German data company, there are more than 500000 new energy vehicles registered in Europe from January to July, including about 269000 pure electric vehicles and 231000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, which are close to the full year sales in 2019 and have surpassed China Schmidt expects total sales in Europe to exceed 1 million vehicles for the year. (data source: China Automobile Industry Association, public information)

    China's sales decline in the first half of the year was partly affected by the epidemic, but the European region was also affected by the epidemic, but the rapid growth reflected another important feature of the new energy vehicle market at present. Different from the mature and fully market-oriented internal combustion engine vehicle market, the new energy vehicle market is still in the primary development stage, and is obviously affected by the policy. China's subsidy policy has been started for a long time, but it has gradually declined this year. Now it is the moment when subsidies are in full swing in Europe. All countries have increased their efforts this year, and the sales volume has increased significantly. It is not surprising to complete the surpassing.

    Development prospect of new energy vehicles

    From the macro policy point of view, most countries and regions in the world firmly promote the popularization of new energy vehicles. China has launched the "double points" policy since 2017, and will introduce new regulations in September this year to lower the entry threshold of new energy vehicles and increase the promotion of new energy vehicles. This year, the European region has introduced strict global regulations on carbon dioxide emissions: by 2021, 95% of new cars will have to meet 95 g / km (1-year buffer period); in 2025, 15% of new vehicles will be reduced by 15% (i.e., 80.75 g / km). Since 2030, the average CO2 emission of new vehicles in the EU will be reduced by 37.5% compared with that in 2021 (i.e., by 59.375 g / km) The ultimate goal is to achieve zero emissions by 2050.

    The development time of new energy vehicles is not long now. Before, the production cost of new energy vehicles is still higher than that of internal combustion engines of the same level. Consumers' purchase intention is not strong, and they mainly rely on subsidy policies to stimulate consumption. However, in the next few years, in order to meet the requirements of emission regulations, global automobile enterprises are bound to increase the research and development of new energy vehicles, and the electrification goals released by major automobile enterprises are listed It shows that the proportion of new energy vehicles in the product portfolio will be increased to more than 25% less than that of * * in 2025.

    In recent five years, the global annual output of automobiles is about 90 million. If the market proportion of new energy vehicles can be increased, the demand for copper of million tons will be increased. In March this year, the International Copper Association, in collaboration with IDTechEx, released a forecast on the development of the automobile industry, and new energy vehicles may usher in blowout development in the next 20 years. IDTechEx predicts that the total output of new energy vehicles will increase from 2.8% to 8% in 2025, and reach 19% in 2030. With the maturity of technology and market, new energy vehicles will get faster development and occupy 72% of automobile market in 2040.

    Global auto industry forecast (in thousands)

(source: global copper association, IDTechEx)

    The new energy vehicles with color are produced by countries and regions, and the black parts are the global production of internal combustion engine vehicles.

    The International Copper Association predicts that the proportion of new energy vehicles will increase by 19% in 2029. In order to meet the demand of electric energy storage of mobile vehicles and fixed stations, passenger cars alone will bring more than 800000 tons of new demand, and the total new demand will exceed 1.1 million tons. It can be predicted that the potential of new energy vehicle market is huge.

    (estimation method: according to the data of international automobile organization, 91.78 million vehicles will be produced in the world in 2019, including 67.15 million passenger cars, accounting for 73.2%. According to the forecast of the International Copper Association, the global automobile production will continue to rise until it reaches the peak in 2031, and the global output will be close to 100 million in 2029. There are about 73.2 million passenger cars. If the proportion of new energy vehicles can be increased to 19% of the expected, the total production will reach about 13.908 million. In 2019, China's sales of pure electric vehicles account for 83% of the total sales of new energy vehicles, and the proportion in Europe is 65%. If this proportion is 70% in 2029, each new energy passenger vehicle will use 76.1kg of copper after weighting, and the total copper consumption of the whole series of passenger cars will be about 1058000 tons, and the newly added copper will be 869000 tons. If the remaining 26.8% of the light commercial vehicles, heavy trucks and buses are calculated according to the passenger vehicle standard, there will still be 387000 tons of copper demand, with 318000 tons of new demand. The total demand for copper is 1.445 million tons, and the new demand is 1.187 million tons.

    All the data used in the above estimates are relatively conservative. The main copper consumption points of new energy vehicles lie in batteries, wires and motors. The size and power of commercial vehicles are significantly higher than that of passenger vehicles, especially heavy trucks and buses. The actual copper consumption in this part is seriously underestimated. 70% of pure electric vehicles account for a relatively low proportion. Judging from the current trend, the proportion of pure electric vehicles is gradually increasing, and the International Copper Association estimates that the number is 85%. In addition, all models are calculated according to 19% of the new energy conversion ratio. However, in terms of policy promotion, the electric proportion of commercial vehicles should be higher than that of passenger vehicles. For example, some cities in China, such as Shenzhen, have already realized full electric buses. Under the influence of the policy of * * emission, large vehicles in Europe want to achieve an average carbon dioxide emission of 95g / km, that is, fuel consumption of 4L / 100km The proportion of small and medium-sized vehicles is definitely higher than that of electric vehicles. Generally speaking, the above calculated values are low. The International Copper Association predicts that the overall copper demand of the new energy automobile industry will reach 2.3 million tons in 2029, of which trucks and box trucks account for a high proportion, which also reflects that the electric proportion of commercial vehicles should be higher than that of passenger vehicles.)

Annual copper demand forecast of mobile and fixed station electric energy storage in 2019-2029

(source: global copper association, IDTechEx)

    At present, the new energy vehicles are still in the development stage as a whole. The copper consumption of the whole vehicle is estimated based on the existing technology. 10 years is a relatively long time for research and development, and the actual situation is likely to change in the later stage. For example, the pursuit of endurance will lead to the increase of copper consumption. The improvement of processing technology can create thinner copper foil and reduce the demand for copper. In the first mock exam, Ningde has begun to develop electricity conversion technology, that is, to directly replace batteries without charging the charging piles at charging stations. If this mode is popularized, there will undoubtedly be a large number of spare batteries and large quantities of copper on the basis of one vehicle and one battery. No matter how the technology changes, as long as the popularization of new energy vehicles and the increasing proportion of replacing traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, the role of copper is difficult to replace at present, then the overall demand for copper will certainly usher in growth.

    summary

    The annual domestic sales volume is expected to remain unchanged at 1.1 million vehicles. It is expected that the sales volume will pick up in the second half of the year. The overseas growth rate in the first half of the year is relatively large, and the expectation for the second half of the year is also high. In the second half of the year, there will continue to be a small amount of copper demand, which has a weak support for the copper price. At present, the global annual output of new energy vehicles is only about 2.2 million, and the total demand for copper is still small, which has little impact on the market. However, behind the new energy vehicles is the whole automobile market. With the increasing requirements of environmental protection in the world, the popularization of new energy vehicles has quietly occurred. If the manufacturing process of new energy vehicles has not changed greatly, with the continuous market share If the annual demand for new energy will increase from 1.19 million tons of copper to 19.7 million tons per year in 2019, the demand for new energy vehicles will increase from 1.19 million tons in 2019. (International Copper Association)

Source: tongxinbao