First, the 5G wave has brought comprehensive changes to the technology industry, to meet the Times, the entire industrial chain is constantly adjusting, the most significant is the 5G component changes. As an important part of 5G communication, FBC Board (Flexible Circuit Board) is affected significantly, and copper foil, as the main raw material for its preparation, is also "rising with the tide" , but the current 5G communication faces extremely high operating costs, can Not find the application scenario and many other issues, copper foil as the industry as a whole industry chain upstream should be "where to go" , how to adapt to the 5G industry through technological transformation in the future, it is worth thinking deeply about how to avoid the situation of "sharp turn down" . Since the first year of 5G, the FPC board industry has developed rapidly under the influence of the Times. In 2019, China's FBC market grew by 17% year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the size of the market decreased slightly. However, compared with the current development trend, the market scale of FBC industry will still grow rapidly after the epidemic situation stabilizes. "5G is not just a new communications technology, nor is it a simple speed-up of the network. Its real significance lies in the opening of the Internet of things era, which puts new design standards and requirements on the infrastructure and terminal products, especially in the terminal area. Products adapted to the 5G standard will be launched in large scale, and these products need the support of flexible circuit boards. "

According to the 2021-20262026 Market Analysis and Industry Investment Trend Report, the market demand for FPC in China grew to 101.08 million square meters in 2019. In addition, China's flexible circuit board production also continued to increase to 110.566 million square meters in 2019. Affected by the new crown disease in 2020, the output and demand of FPC in China decreased to 105.718 million square meters and the demand decreased to 96.579 million square meters.

The 5g wave has indeed promoted the development of the FPC market in China, and the copper foil as the upper reaches of the whole industry chain has therefore been pushed to the top of the wave. However, the existing 5G technology in China is not yet mature, and although one hundred billion investment has been made, but the operating cost is extremely high, can not achieve the ideal application scenario in the secondary market. This is a new challenge for the copper foil on the top of the wave. It is worth thinking about how to make a further step rather than a sharp turn down. 2. Copper Foil volume and price increase due to 5G demand 5G communication makes China's FPC industry increase the demand for standard copper foil and the gradual penetration of domestic copper foil into the high-end product market, coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity in China in recent years, china's standard copper foil production continued to increase steadily. The data show that China's standard copper foil production was 292,000 tons in 2019 and 312,000 tons in 2020.

目前智能手機、平板電腦等3C電子設(shè)備持續(xù)朝輕薄化、集成化方向發(fā)展，為實現(xiàn)更少空間、更高速、更多功能目標(biāo)，其對FPC板多層化、薄型化、高密度化的要求越來越高。FPC板正向著更小尺寸、更高集成度演進，也推動了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)銅箔技術(shù)和產(chǎn)品的升級。5G通信需要更快的傳輸率、更寬的網(wǎng)絡(luò)頻譜和更高的通信質(zhì)量，因此5G通信設(shè)備對高頻通信材料的性能要求將會更加嚴(yán)苛，其中移動通信基站中的天線系統(tǒng)需用到高頻高速FPC及CCL基材，將帶動具有相關(guān)特性的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)銅箔需求增長。但未來隨著5G應(yīng)用場景由5G通訊向5G工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變，銅箔市場將面臨較大風(fēng)險。

三、5G應(yīng)用場景成疑背景下銅箔市場面臨的風(fēng)險

1. 技術(shù)開發(fā)風(fēng)險

在5G通訊技術(shù)應(yīng)用前，我國柔性線路板消費領(lǐng)域主要集中在消費電子、汽車電子、網(wǎng)絡(luò)通信等領(lǐng)域。就FPC終端應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域而言，智能手機、平板電腦等消費電子對FPC的消費量占比超過70%，汽車電子等其他領(lǐng)域?qū)PC的需求處于低位。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2019年柔性線路板智能手機領(lǐng)域應(yīng)用規(guī)模為526.93億元，占比40.44%；平板電腦領(lǐng)域應(yīng)用規(guī)模218.51億元，占比16.77%。

5G技術(shù)應(yīng)用后，推動了我國柔性電路板整體提升，但其發(fā)展方向更側(cè)重于5G通訊領(lǐng)域，對比于應(yīng)用前，國有柔性電路板產(chǎn)研方向更側(cè)重于電子消費產(chǎn)品，在工業(yè)領(lǐng)域的產(chǎn)研能力相對薄弱，若未來5G技術(shù)發(fā)展方向如樓繼偉先生所指將應(yīng)用于工業(yè)領(lǐng)域，我國現(xiàn)有的柔性電路板產(chǎn)研能力并不足以支撐其進行迅速適配，需要較長時間進行產(chǎn)業(yè)***轉(zhuǎn)變，銅箔作為柔性電路板產(chǎn)業(yè)上游在產(chǎn)研技術(shù)上將面臨較大變革。

2. 外部產(chǎn)品替代風(fēng)險

目前，全球撓性覆銅板生產(chǎn)主要集中在日本、韓國、中國大陸和中國臺灣地區(qū)。其中，日本FCCL市場占比高達27.2%，以新日鐵住金、宇部日東化成和三井化學(xué)等為代表，中國超越韓國，成為第二大生產(chǎn)國，占比達25.5%，以生益科技、福萊克斯等為代表；韓國以24.5%位居第三，以Doosan等企業(yè)為代表。

The FPC industry in China has developed rapidly in the context of the shift of the Global FPC industry's center of gravity to China and the booming consumer electronics market in China, however, there is still a significant gap between Chinese and foreign enterprises in the field of copper foil casting and other technologies. Take the FPC product process capability as an example, the local FPC company in China has the process capability of 40-50 m line width/70-80 m aperture, the international leading enterprise has the capability of 30-40 m line width/40-50 m hole diameter, and has successfully developed FPC products with line width under 15 m line width/40 m hole diameter. At the same time, foreign FPC enterprises have perfect upstream industry chain, while domestic FPC enterprises mostly need to purchase substrate to produce high-end FPC products. By analyzing the import and export amount of copper foil, it can be seen that China still needs to import large-scale foreign copper foil and has low bargaining power. From 2015 to 2020, China's copper foil imports showed an overall growth trend, in 2020, China's copper foil imports of us $3.091 billion, an increase of 6.99% year-on-year, exports of US $941 million, an increase of 10.58% year-on-year; As of 2021, the value of China's copper foil imports was us $1.254 billion, up 36.36 percent year on year, and the value of exports was US $410 million, up 25.13 percent year on year.

The cause of this phenomenon is that China's local FPC industry has developed relatively late, and there is a significant gap between China and the world's leading enterprises in terms of technology reserve and capacity scale. Recently, some foreign media reported that due to the global new energy vehicle acceleration is imminent, as the lithium battery anode current collector main material, lithium copper foil downstream market demand is strong. In this situation, South Korea Nissin Copper Foil Company, SK Group Lithium Copper Foil subsidiary, South Korea Doosan Group, Doosan group and other enterprises have invested hundreds of millions of euros to build factories in Europe, in order to seize the future market opportunities. South Korea's Nissin Copper Foil Company has announced it will invest more than 11 million euros (87.19 million yuan) to set up its first European copper foil production base in Hungary, with a monthly production capacity of about 320 tons of copper foil below 10 meters, the report said, the main service in Samsung Sdi, Ski, LG Chem, Byd Company and other downstream enterprises. SK Nexilis, a subsidiary of SK Group, has invested 240 billion won (1.43 billion yuan) in the construction of two lithium copper foil plants, No. 5 and No. 6, in Jingyi, jeolla-do, South Korea. Production is expected to begin in the first quarter of 2022. SK Nexilis will increase its copper foil capacity to 52,000 tonnes when it goes into production. Its products mainly supply the United States, Europe and Southeast Asia and other regions, further enhance its lithium copper foil market competitiveness. South Korea's Doosan group has announced an investment of about 95 million euros for a copper foil project in the northwestern city of Tatabánya. The new plant will produce 50,000 tons of copper foil a year, enough to produce batteries for about 2.2 million electric cars, and has already secured an order worth about 100 billion won, will supply copper foil to an international battery manufacturer. The deal supplies about 80 per cent of the capacity of DOOSAN's Hungarian company. It can be predicted that if the application scenario of 5G technology changes in the future, copper foil as the upstream of FPC industry chain, China will face the same situation in the European lithium-electric copper foil market due to insufficient technology reserves. Future trend of copper foil industry. Technology transformation the application scenario of 5G technology in the future will gradually shift from the field of communication to the field of high-speed mobile industry. Copper foil is an important part of 5G technology, this will require further improvement in copper foil quality, high-frequency signal transmission and other aspects, copper foil will be thinner direction, from the market mainstream of 12 m to 9 M, 7 M, 6 m, or even 4 m (JPCA Jx 2019 JX exhibition 4m rolled copper foil) . For domestic copper foil manufacturers, 9 m standard copper foil production almost reached the limit of equipment, process and quality control, production is more difficult, yield is low.

If 5g technology is to be used in industrial applications, the substrate will need to be of high frequency and high speed. The FPC plate made of Liquid Crystal Polymer Polymer (LCP) has this characteristic, and may be suitable for applications. At present, although China has the corresponding technology, it is not yet able to mass-produce copper foil suitable for this technology. In the future, the copper foil industry should form the high-end products which will be the mainstream of 5G technology by technology transformation and FPC production technology.

2. In addition to being the basic material of 5G technology, copper foil can also be used in railway and Rail Transit, new energy automobile industry, large data center and other fields. The current policy-driven development of new energy vehicle industry is expected to drive lithium battery and copper foil demand growth.

China sold 1.367 million new energy vehicles in 2020, up 10.9 percent year-on-year. Sales of new energy vehicles are picking up as the domestic epidemic situation is under control. Sales of 950,000 new energy vehicles in 2021, up 2.2 times from a year earlier. The association expects sales of New Energy passenger cars to rise to 2.4 million units this year. This shows, benefit from the development of new energy automobile industry, lithium battery and its upstream raw material copper foil demand will continue to grow. At the same time, with the development of lithium battery performance toward high energy density, the application of lithium copper foil will increase gradually. Indeed, between January and May, more than a dozen new and expanded copper foil projects were built around the world, according to the 2021. That added up to 560,000 tonnes of new capacity, equivalent to a 67% increase in nominal capacity by the end of 2020(830,000) . New Capacity is expected to begin production in 2022-2025, with large copper foil plants (50,000 tons per year) taking 18-20 months from construction to commissioning. In this context, China's copper foil market should respond, on the one hand, to upgrade the technology to adapt to the future 5G technology application scenario as soon as possible, on the other hand, should make adjustments to the production capacity, to the new energy vehicles and other current prospects for the better areas of energy output. But according to the former finance minister, Lou Jiwei, we can foresee that the market scale of 5G communication field and 5G communication adapters will decline in the next few years, 5G Technology has a long way to go before it can be used in appropriate scenarios. As the upstream substrate, China's copper foil industry will face many risks at home and abroad, so China's copper foil market should respond quickly, while upgrading the technology to suit the future 5G technology application scenario, make capacity adjustment. The development of copper foil industry in the future is worthy of our further attention. 

Source: Gezhi Industrial Development